The shape of success
Remarkable as they were in many ways, early computers made few concessions to the user. Along with changing vacuum tubes regularly, users of the ENIAC (the first general-purpose electronic digital computer, built in 1945) had to rewire the machine to program it. The user experience was not only mentally but physically challenging. In human terms, the computer was rather like an infant, demanding and possessed of a limited understanding of its caretakers.
Today, computers are starting to grow up. We can dictate to our PCs and navigate about the screen using voice commands. We soon may be able to carry on a rudimentary conversation with them. At IBM, our researchers have also developed ways to allow computers to follow our gaze, respond to our minutest gesture and even glean something about our emotional state. These are important objectives, and in the coming years they will fundamentally transform computing.
Increasingly, we will come to think of computers as partners in the task at hand. We can expect that they will be able to anticipate our needs, adapt to our limitations and allow even novices to perform complex programming. We are clearly not there yet. But the tremendous progress in the power of computers, while primarily aimed at allowing them to do more, also contributes to extending their usability. In fact, thanks to faster microprocessors and larger memories, speech recognition software—once restricted to mainframes and high-end workstations—now runs on PCs and will soon be available in handheld devices.
In another half century, today's most advanced PCs will no doubt seem as antiquated as the machines of the 1940s. Already, many people are talking about the "end of the PC era." What ultimately replaces it will change the very meaning of computing. Computers will become pervasive and the interface to them transparent. Instead of thinking about computers, we will be free to focus solely on tasks we wish to accomplish. And we will rely on the computing power embedded in the environment—which may not be visible and most likely will not be solely "ours"—to recognize us, solve our problems and provide us (or our wearable devices) with the information we need when we need it. This is not a new vision, but neither is it any longer just a dream. In IBM's labs and elsewhere, researchers are working on the technology to make it a reality. The computer is finally about to come of age.
Paul M. Horn
senior vice president and director,
IBM Research
