Twenty years ago, the notion of a home computer tackling sophisticated
spreadsheet applications or instantly editing, formatting and publishing a
document seemed remote to most people. Ten years ago, mining information from a
library clear across the world, shopping or sending mail on a home PC seemed
just as implausible.
In fact, in the 15 years since the first personal computer IBM introduced,
the PC industry has experienced more dramatic change than perhaps any other
industry. These advances have largely been driven by end-users who, after seeing
the benefits of technology - improved productivity, simplified learning and
enriched entertainment - want their PCs to become an even bigger part of
their lives.
The consumer PC industry, now a $60 billion opportunity, is expected to
double by the year 2000 as more families experience PC technology for the first
time and others add second and third PCs to their households. How will IBM
capture the opportunity and lead this dynamic marketplace? I see five key areas
where we should focus our attention: multimedia, home networks, ease of use,
enhanced learning and digital imaging.
Since it became standard in the last few years, multimedia has enriched the
PC experience with more clarity, variety and flexibility. IBM's strong
commitment to multimedia has helped us be among the first to market such
advances as MMX technology and 3D graphics. In the process, we have established
leadership for IBM's Aptiva® home PC. To build on that leadership, we need
to explore new advances that will further enrich multimedia computing.
The growing base of home PCs will likely make home networks one of the next
big opportunities. Families with multiple PCs will connect these units so that
they can share files, printers and CD-ROM drives. And as the PC takes on a
bigger role in "running" the house - adjusting the heating and
electrical systems, controlling lights, security systems and other appliances - the
possibilities for establishing home servers as "command centers" are
growing.
Success, however, hinges on dramatically improving ease of use. Imagine
consumers who complain about how difficult it is to program a VCR, trying to set
up and manage a home server or network computer. But perhaps most important of
all is to deliver technology that makes operating a PC as natural as speaking.
The key here is to perfect IBM leadership technologies such as voice navigation
and voice recognition (see
"Talking
to Machines").
No one benefits more from ease of use than children. The Consumer Division
has defined enhanced learning as its primary software market segment.
Acquisitions and strategic alliances are furthering our software strategy, which
includes reaching children early, sustaining their interest into adulthood and
having them transfer it to their own children. Technology solutions that
complement our enhanced learning software products will solidify our position in
this important segment.
Finally, thanks to digital imaging, the family photo album will never be the
same. Images can be captured and stored without using film, and then enhanced,
enlarged or shared electronically with others. Digital imaging will be the "desktop
publishing" of the 90s.
The home PC has come a long way since 1982, and we can be proud of the role
IBM has played in shaping those advances. The possibilities for the next 20
years are endless, but we can't capture the opportunity unless we start
exploring those possibilities now.
