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Impact of Future Technology

Rapid advances in technological innovation can spell success for those companies nimble enough to harness the new capabilities and exploit new opportunities to gain an edge over the competition. But for those businesses caught off-guard, this type of unanticipated market shift can spell disaster. Established firms must remain vigilant against disruptive change that can erode their core customer base, often by countering with innovative solutions of their own. The key to success in times of sudden change is to identify the danger signs ahead of time and be prepared to make a countermove.

In 2005, researchers at IBM Almaden Research Lab and IBM Global Business Services (GBS) began developing an integrated solution called the Impact of Future Technology (IoFT) a three-phase process that goes far beyond mere extrapolation of current trends. IoFT specialists explore the technology landscape and seek to identify signposts and other disruptors or game changers that may signal new opportunities or threats for GBS clients. The objective is not just to know what will happen, but to be ready when it does. By avoiding unpleasant surprises, clients are able to face new situations with a game plan in hand, ready to transform potential disruptions into competitive advantages. Using the IoFT solution helps businesses prepare for the full range of plausible futures, giving them a tool to help prioritize and manage a portfolio of technology investments, and more clearly understand how political and economic events and scientific breakthroughs can affect their organizations.

The IoFT solution uses subject matter experts in IBM Research and advanced technology in information mining and text analytics to perform a comprehensive search and analysis of both structured and unstructured authoritative data content, such as the U.S. patent database, industry specific information, scientific journals and certain Web sites to produce technology landscapes. Next, IBM researchers work with GBS consultants to analyze and synthesize signposts that represent a potential dramatic shift in economic conditions or market environment, and recommend actions to address each signpost. Finally, the potential effects, costs and probabilities of success are derived for each possible scenario. Recommended actions are prioritized and the client is presented with a roadmap for current and future R&D investment. The result is a set of missions or initiatives tied to the occurrence of specific recognizable events rather than a rigid set of future dates. This restructuring of strategy helps businesses better align their actions to market conditions and plan ahead for strategies to turn disruptive change into competitive opportunities.

A military logistics organization

A government organization responsible for researching, developing, and testing modern logistics technologies and business practices engaged IBM to help identify what future technologies might affect logistics through 2032 and beyond. GBS consultants, IBM researchers and a team of foresight professionals sifted through massive amounts of data related to logistics issues and the results were distilled into nine future vision areas, broadly covering IT, biotechnology, nanotechnology, telerobotics, energy and advanced data analytics.

IBM Research and GBS assembled teams of industry experts from top academic institutions and businesses representing each industry area. Workshops were then conducted to examine emerging trends and scientific breakthroughs in each focus area with an eye toward thinking about how logistics planning and execution might evolve over the coming decades. The subject matter experts also worked with GBS and the client to craft a plan for how the client might assimilate the right tools and techniques incrementally to keep pace with anticipated developments. In addition to the workshops, IBM zeroed in on two dozen technologies and authored a series of white papers and feasibility studies with targeted recommendations for further investigation and possible investment.

An Asia-Pacific government ministry

A government ministry in the Asia-Pacific region with oversight responsibilities in the areas of science, technology and innovation sought assistance from IBM in designing a 10-year roadmap to help guide investment and workforce development for information and communication technologies (ICT). The goal was to develop strategies for making these technologies an important driver of national economic growth with the aim of becoming a recognized global leader in ICT. The IoFT team interviewed key government stakeholders and used brainstorm techniques with subject matter experts to compile a list of 30 potential ICT focus areas. Through further analysis and filtering, the list was winnowed to 10 candidate areas that align best with the government's strategic goals, taking into consideration such factors as the global economic environment and future technology trends.

Technology landscape analysis was performed for each focus area using advanced information mining and text analytics. Narrative scenarios based on the technologies involved in each area were developed. Subject matter experts were engaged to share with the government stakeholders their in-depth expertise on the economic potential of each area and possible competition from neighboring countries. Following this information-sharing phase, three or four areas were selected for more in depth investigation and analysis, including what specific infrastructural and R&D investments would be needed and what educational commitments would be required to produce a workforce capable of exploiting these opportunities.

A European government agency

A European government economic agency engaged IBM's IoFT team for assistance in developing a technology forecast over the next five years to identify key emerging technologies for e-government. The goal was to help the agency provide better services to small and medium businesses. The team identified four promising areas and 10 to 12 technologies per area that could be implemented to improve the delivery of e-government services. Areas included knowledge management and collaboration; ease of access; ease of use; and security and monitoring. The IoFT team also recommended redesigning the agency's portal to better accommodate and serve its clientele.

Meeting competitive challenges with IoFT

In a global economic environment, businesses must find ways not only to stay one step ahead of the competition, but also to insulate their strategic goals from the political and economic upheaval that can play havoc with long-term planning. The trick in turning such disruptive events into positive outcomes lies in the ability to understand the current landscape and to identify the signposts signaling imminent change so that the client can respond quickly with a contingency strategy. The IoFT solution, which harnesses IBM's advanced information mining and text analytics technology together with a broad spectrum of subject matter expertise, is designed to help clients exploit their strengths, invest more wisely in R&D efforts, and anticipate and plan for disruptive changes.